发信人: hsing (hsing), 信区: Age
标  题: 那个啥和鼻子挺大
发信站: 水木社区 (Wed Nov 30 22:53:07 2016), 站内

真有关系吗?妹子们验证过没
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※ 来源:·水木社区 http://m.newsmth.net·[FROM: 124.207.89.*]
发信人: vgs (把酒祝东风), 信区: CouponsLife
标  题: 信用卡还款券500-5
发信站: 水木社区 (Thu Dec  1 00:30:28 2016), 站内

https://mk.jd.com/marketing/jd/takeprize/index?entranceId=HrrYDdijovTCA

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※ 来源:·水木社区 newsmth.net·[FROM: 123.118.88.*]
发信人: yulanbaobao (彼岸花), 信区: FamilyLife
标  题: 辅导娃英文已然崩溃了
发信站: 水木社区 (Wed Nov 30 09:47:59 2016), 站内

一晚上,就一句话   “I am a magic  tree, Please say the magic words"

愣是没学会,将近3个小时

我、娃爸+点读笔

一晚上啊,都崩溃了

姑娘还哭了

啊啊啊啊啊啊-----5岁半的娃,简直。。。。。。。。


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发信人: Tschuess (Ciao), 信区: MilitaryView
标  题: Let California Go——让加州滚蛋吧zz
发信站: 水木社区 (Wed Nov 30 21:28:30 2016), 站内

来个美国人三天前的文章(节选)
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/11/let_california_go.html
November 27, 2016
Let California Go
By Robert Oscar Lopez
When people speak of Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote, they are really speaking about California.  In that state, Hillary Clinton won 6,621,346 votes to Donald Trump's 3,549,576 as of this writing.  This margin of over three million votes alone accounts for any claim that Clinton exceeded Trump in popular support.
……
Only in California does one find a vast state with a huge population (nearly 40 million people) with multiple sprawling metro areas that all lean strongly Democratic or, at best (in the case of San Diego), just libertarian enough to be less than completely left wing.  The San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Palm Springs, Long Beach, etc. stretch across miles and miles of a complex and diverse landscape, hosting a stunning multiplicity of races and ethnicities.  Yet everywhere you go in the state, you seem to find Democrats or Republicans who just don't strike you as all that conservative.
……
California is a different country.  They know it, we know it, and the Lord has certainly noticed.  The other 49 states are far worse for being burdened with this swollen modern-day mess.

Pretend the USA got to dump this state.  Rather than Hillary Clinton leading in the popular vote at all, Donald J. Trump would claim 57,284,861 votes over Clinton's 55,160,670, making Trump the winner by 306 electoral votes to 177, sporting a comfy buffer of 2,124,191 votes.

Californians seem to understand that despite their huge numbers, they are an ideologically foreign parasite at war with the antibodies of their host country.  It was a miracle that Proposition 8 once passed in California, but that was eight years ago, and we have seen no signs since then that California will be anything less than an over-the-top left wing disaster zone of vice, identity politics, and sexual chaos.
……
There are some anti-Trump forces in California so horrified at the 2016 election that they have suggested a "Calexit," a secessionist movement.  People who scoff at this idea seem to forget that Donald Trump just became the president-elect and that in this day and age, anything's possible.

I say, let California go.  It is true that the state has a great deal of money and natural resources, but the rest of the country has more of each.  The last time a state seceded, there was a civil war, but this time there wouldn't be one.
……
Californians do not find common values with any state outside their own.  They have no ideological principle that causes them to be so repugnant to the rest of their country.  Non-Californians would see little to save by forcing the state to be American.  Unlike the situation with African slavery, Californians choose to get high on reefer, buy breast implants, attempt to surgically reassign their genders, and hand off their children to be raised by undocumented nannies who do not speak English.  This is a secession we can have without bloodshed, trauma, or Walt Whitman.
……
……
This is a California thing.  Self-enclosed, spoiled, and yet emotionally frail, the state is utterly at odds with the rest of the country.  They are literally not "who we are as a country."  They are something else entirely.

Maybe they would be wildly successful on their own, with their mishmash of porn impresarios, cosmetologists, libertarians, film school hacks, prosperity preachers, illegal aliens, left-wing loudmouths, and oversexed homosexuals.  They would be a massively wealthy independent nation charting a course through new historical grounds. Maybe they would collapse under their own dysfunctional decadence and be horribly embarrassed about ever having condescended to the 283 million normal and self-sufficient Americans who don't live in their state.  Honestly, as a refugee from California State University-Northridge, I don't give a d---.

Let them go.

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发信人: oldsnail (情非得已闯江湖), 信区: RealEstate
标  题: 还不降价卖等过了12月中估计就惨了
发信站: 水木社区 (Wed Nov 30 21:53:37 2016), 站内

去年12月美元加息后股市从3600跌倒2600点,这次房价要跌多少,李嘉诚这狐狸早跑了
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发信人: joybio (joybio), 信区: Universal
标  题: 还有没睡的青么,点个名怎么样?
发信站: 水木社区 (Thu Dec  1 01:11:26 2016), 站内

[email protected]
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※ 来源:·zSMTH·[FROM: 223.104.3.*]
发信人: rasper (妈妈咪呀), 信区: AutoWorld
标  题: 电驴:你先等着,我去撞个人
发信站: 水木社区 (Wed Nov 30 20:16:15 2016), 站内

动图
  
  
[email protected]
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发信人: muniu (母牛), 信区: Picture
标  题: 看我吊吗
发信站: 水木社区 (Thu Dec  1 00:28:04 2016), 站内


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※ 来源:·水木社区 http://newsmth.net·[FROM: 1.202.84.*]


发信人: skyend (知者不惑,仁者不忧,勇者不惧), 信区: Stock
标  题: 熊文:姚老板出手,格力先看到35
发信站: 水木社区 (Wed Nov 30 23:19:47 2016), 站内


今天本来正吭哧吭哧准备写黑色系期货和股票的问题呢,结果出大事了,格力电器自查结果如下:“前海人寿保险股份有限公司自11月17日公司股票复牌至2016年11月28日期间大量购入公司股票,持股比例由2016年三季度末的0.99%上升至4.13%。”前海人寿就是姚老板宝能系的干将,当年搞万科的急先锋。

还记得前天也就是11月28日里面夜报开头说了什么吗,容我嘚瑟一下,当时就预测了有人要举牌。而关于格力电器的股东背景,在11月22日的夜报里面有详细说明,大家可以可以点击左下角的“原文链接”查看,就不多啰嗦了。

这里还是简单分析一下姚老板进入格力的路线图。


2016年9月6日,是格力第一次复牌的第三个交易日。当日姚老板从板上狠砸3000万股,折合7亿人民币左右。现在来看那是欲擒故纵,担心格力价格太高了不好下手。

然后从9月6日到10月28日,这段时间姚老板估计是努力低吸,至少要把9月6日砸出去的那6000万股吸回来。高抛低吸,至少也做了1个亿的差价。

2016年11月17-28日,这段时间是肉戏。基本套路就是国家队砸盘,姚老板接货。基本上可以猜测,姚老板的成本是25元左右。

也就是说,从9月到现在,姚老板通过一系列操作,买了60亿左右的格力,成本估计在23-24元之间;算上前面持有的1个点,综合成本在22-23之间。

那么,格力会成为下一个万科么?

我个人觉得不会,理由有五个。

(1)姚老板当初进万科的时候,是乘着股灾的乱子。第一次第二次举牌的时候市场还没看明白姚老板在干嘛呢,只觉得突然来了个凯子。而事实证明,姚老板不是凯子,市场才是最大的那个凯子。而这回市场警觉性很高,都准备搭姚老板的顺风车呢。

(2)万科股灾后的最低价是12,姚老板最初5个点举牌的时候,成本也就在13-14元左右。目前持股20个点以上,平均成本还不到17,比最低价高50%。而格力股灾后的最低价是16,现价28,已经涨了75%,姚老板才持有不到5个点而已。结论就是:姚老板搞万科是低成本的,搞格力成本就高很多。

(3)万科是直接举牌的,不能卖。格力毕竟没有到5个点呢,姚老板耍个赖直接卖了又如何?去咬他么?

(4)格力集团和格力经销商加起来持有30个点的股份,董小姐为代表的管理层还有一些,再加上其他一些董小姐能争取到的票,7788加起来能控制35个点左右。而当时华润和王石加起来不过能控制25个点,而且王石还昏头得罪了华润,董小姐应该会吸取这个教训。

(5)家电和房子不一样。离开了董小姐的团队格力可能会真的不行,但是离开了王石或者郁亮,万科还是万科。

BUT,不能成为下一个万科不代表不能涨了。

我以前说过,格力的现有价值至少是28,这个28是怎么算出来的呢?

格力今年现金分红是1.5元,以5%的无风险收益来计算,那么正好是1.5*20=30元。但考虑到1.5的现金已经分掉了,下一次要明年才能拿,那么就是30-1.5=28.5,取整为28元。

这个28元就是格力的最低估值,再低的都不合理,说给全世界的投资机构都是这个道理。只有在天朝这个变态的市场才可能出现低于28元的格力。

那么随着姚老板的进入,格力又获得了流动性溢价。这个溢价没法细说,毛估估就算20%好了,那么28.5*120%=34.2。也就是说格力最少也值34.2元。

注意,我这里说的是最少。因为前面那个28.5是格力的最低估值,而正常估值显然应该更多——因为格力藏了至少几百亿的利润。那么如果按照正常估值计算的话,不考虑流动性溢价格力就应该值35,考虑流动性溢价为42。

所以,也许格力没有办法复制万科的发展路线,但是35元的价格是明牌。围绕35元这个价格中枢,姚老板、董小姐、市场三者会展开博弈。这个价格显然大家都是认可的,否则你怎么解释格力董秘望靖东近期增持格力股票呢?

最后强调一下,姚老板根本不缺钱。万科一个单子,姚老板就赚了300亿以上。别说万科不能卖,明年1月姚老板手里的万科就解禁了。

结论:真正的博弈要在35元左右才会发生,我等小散持股待涨即可。不过鉴于我的格力成本不到20,因此除非连续涨停,否则会按计划在30元以上进行一次减持。

而退一万步说,至少谁都不会傻到在现价的基础上把格力价格打下去。别人打下去就是便宜了姚老板,姚老板打下去就是便宜了别人。同学们高学历的多,这个简单的博弈论分析应该不难。
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※ 修改:·skyend 于 Nov 30 23:33:20 2016 修改本文·[FROM: 134.225.30.*]
※ 来源:·水木社区 newsmth.net·[FROM: 134.225.30.*]